Weekly Insight from Seabreeze Logistics: Stay Ahead in Freight

• EAS closes on Volga-Dnepr rescue, but UK arm remains frozen until 2028

EAS Group (Evraz Avia Service) is moving to complete a rescue takeover of Volga-Dnepr Group in the first quarter of 2026, aiming to stabilise Russia’s largest cargo airline after years of financial distress under sanctions. However, Volga-Dnepr’s UK-registered arm remains subject to sanctions and asset freezes, meaning it cannot resume operations or access markets there until at least 2028.The deal underscores ongoing efforts to preserve the once-dominant heavy and outsized cargo operator, even as sanctions and fleet challenges constrain its global footprint. Overall, the EAS rescue points to a potential revival of core operations, but geopolitical and regulatory hurdles continue to limit full recovery.

• Air cargo market 2025: A year of front-loading, fragmentation, and forced agility

The 2025 air cargo market experienced high volatility as demand shifted rapidly and traditional planning cycles broke down. Shippers front-loaded cargo ahead of tariff changes, disrupting normal seasonal patterns. Rerouted trade flows led to fragmented capacity and shorter pricing windows. Carriers responded with agile scheduling and dynamic network adjustments. Despite ongoing uncertainty, flexibility helped the industry remain resilient.

• Alliances vs independent carriers: market share on major box trades

New data shows that independent carriers now hold about 15 % of the transpacific container shipping market, a significant decline compared with earlier years as alliance-linked carriers dominate the major trade lanes. Major alliances — such as the Ocean Alliance, Gemini Cooperation and Premier Alliance — together with independent giant MSC, control roughly 82–83 % of global container capacity, leaving independents with only a minority share. Infomarine This concentration reflects ongoing consolidation and network collaboration among the largest carriers, which helps optimise schedules but limits competitive room for smaller operators. Industry watchers say the dominance of alliances and large independents continues to shape pricing and service options on key East-West trades.

• Price-setters or price-takers? How the box lines played the rate game in 2025

In 2025, major container lines maintained partial control over freight rates by tightly managing capacity through blank sailings and service adjustments. While main East West trades saw carriers act as price-setters, oversupply and weaker demand on secondary routes forced them into price-taker positions. Overall, pricing power remained mixed, with rate discipline holding better than expected despite market volatility.