Freight Waves by Seabreeze – Trends and insights shaping logistics

• UPS bullish for Q4 amid 'cost-saving' initiatives

United Parcel Service (UPS) is entering the fourth quarter with a bullish outlook, driven by aggressive cost-saving initiatives that include a workforce reduction of about 4% and the closure of around 93 leased and owned facilities in 2025. The company reported Q3 revenue of roughly US $21.4 billion and is forecasting Q4 revenue near US $24 billion with an operating margin of 11-11.5%, up from approximately 10% in Q3. While parcel volumes remain under pressure, UPS is shifting focus toward higher-margin segments and improved network automation and efficiency to bolster profitability.

• CMA CGM - Eurogate Hamburg investment deal 'back on the table

The French carrier CMA CGM is reportedly reviving discussions to acquire a major shareholding in one of Eurogate’s German container-terminals, likely at the Port of Hamburg. While no formal agreement has been announced, maritime consultancy Alphaliner believes a deal is imminent. For CMA CGM, this represents a strategic push into a key Northern European hub, offering enhanced infrastructure access and terminal operations control. On the flip side, Eurogate would gain a strong partner with global scale. Regulatory approval and exact terms (stake size, price, timing) remain unclear.

• Airfreight rates get a lift, but no one expects a peak season boost now

Airfreight rates have recently seen a slight lift globally, helped by demand for commodities like aluminum and high-tech cargo such as AI servers. However, forwarders and airlines are not expecting the usual strong Q4 peak season, as market momentum remains weak. Industry sentiment suggests that any rate increases are likely to be temporary rather than the start of a major surge. Capacity availability and softer consumer spending are continuing to limit growth. Overall, the market outlook remains cautious despite the recent rate uptick.

• Air cargo round-up: growth, network expansion and bigger freighters

The air cargo sector is seeing growth, with Lufthansa Cargo reporting an 8% sales increase and a 254% rise in adjusted EBIT for the first nine months of 2025. Carriers are expanding networks and investing in larger freighters, with wide-body new builds expected to support fleet growth of about 45% by 2044. However, constraints in freighter deliveries and retirements may limit capacity expansion in the short term. Overall, airlines are strategically positioning for long-term growth rather than relying on immediate volume surges.