Seabreeze Market Minute: Weekly Freight Insights

• Air cargo: Tension along Asian supply chains as shippers await US decisions

Air cargo shippers across Asia are facing rising uncertainty as they await key U.S. trade decisions, including potential new tariffs and the end of the “de minimis” exemption for low-value goods. Demand on China–U.S. routes has softened, prompting many exporters to shift toward short term bookings. In response, carriers like Cathay Pacific are adjusting capacity, focusing more on Southeast Asia and Europe to maintain stability.

• Top Shipping Lines Locked Out of Santos Bid as Maersk Loses Appeal

A Brazilian federal judge has denied Maersk’s appeal to alter the terms of the Tecon 10 terminal auction at Port of Santos, ruling that the exclusion of incumbent operators from the initial bidding phase is legal and procedurally sound. This outcome effectively keeps Maersk, MSC, and other major carriers out of the first round unless they divest their existing terminal assets. The decision paves the way for new entrants— including Asian shipping firms and local players like JBS Terminais—to participate in Latin America's largest port expansion project.

• Trade Is Fundamentally Changing Under Tariff Pressure

Businesses worldwide are restructuring supply chains as trade policy becomes more fragmented. Countries are drifting toward regional partnerships or reshoring production to reduce exposure to rising U.S. and Chinese tariffs. This shift is fueling inflation, slowing trade growth, and accelerating the adoption of technology—like AI, blockchain, and compliance automation—to manage complexity. While large multinationals have adapted, smaller firms face heightened risks, and trade is no longer operating under a unified global narrative.

• Orders for new box ships continue to arrive at shipyards, despite rate fears

Shipowners are continuing to place large orders for container vessels even as spot and charter freight rates remain under pressure. Container ship orders surged dramatically in early 2025—with volumes up nearly 288% year-on-year, totalling 2 million TEU, while demand growth has remained under 5%. Analysts warn this massive backlog—9.7 million TEU already on order—risks long-term oversupply, even as carriers prioritize fleet renewal, green fuel compliance, and competitive positioning.